Gainesville, Florida 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

264
FXUS62 KJAX 280541
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
141 AM EDT Sat Jun 28 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 141 AM EDT Sat Jun 28 2025

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Atlantic high pressure ridging will remain over the FL peninsula
resulting in southwesterly steering flow. The closed upper low
over GA will weaken and drift NNW later today gradually bringing
an end to cooler temperatures aloft. Some patchy inland fog will
be possible early morning in areas that received rainfall
yesterday. Lingering moist tropical airmass (1.7-2.1 in.) and
shortwaves aloft will result in scattered to numerous showers and
storms developing along the inland moving sea breezes. With SW
flow, convection will start in the NE Gulf around sunrise and
shift onshore into the I-75 corridor by mid-morning. The Gulf
coast sea breeze becomes dominant today with the sea breeze merger
likely along or just west of the I-95 corridor later this
afternoon/evening. A strong storm will be possible mainly focused
along the sea breeze and outflow boundary collisions. Convection
wanes with the loss of daytime heating and shifts offshore later
this evening to around midnight. With the Atlantic sea breeze
pinned to the I-95 corridor, highs will be in the low 90s area-
wide even to the beaches. Overnight lows will be in the 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 141 AM EDT Sat Jun 28 2025

A cutoff upper low situated to the northwest will continue to fill
through Sunday, while a residual low level trough exists across the
southeastern states through early next week. Locally, steering flow
will remain southwesterly, focusing the deepest and more widespread
convective coverage in storms along the I-95 corridor and coast each
afternoon. Though there will be a plethora of deep moisture (PWATs
at or above 2"), upper level lapse rates are expected to be so-so
with little influence from a weak Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough
(TUTT) situated near the Bahamas. With the southwesterly flow,
convective initiation will likely occur by mid morning and quickly
proceed eastward to the Atlantic coast through the early afternoon.
Anticipate typical afternoon pulse and sea-breeze thunderstorms,
with the potential for heavy rain and a few strong storms along the
converging sea breezes. Main concerns will localized heavy,
lightning, and strong outflow wind gusts with daily afternoon storms.

Expect highs in the low/mid 90s Sunday, fueling diurnal instability.
Increasing mid level moisture and cloud cover will knock a few
degrees off high temps on Monday with readings in the upper 80s and
low 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 141 AM EDT Sat Jun 28 2025

It will be an unusually messy upper level pattern for this time of
year during the middle part of next week. This messiness has led to
a lower forecast confidence over this period and there has been some
broad brushing in PoPs due to that uncertainty.

That said, a wetter-than-normal set up appears likely. Moisture
pooling ahead of a weak front sagging into the southeastern US is
expected to stall to the north. High-grade moisture will remain
entrenched and may be enhance, especially Tuesday/Wednesday with the
incoming pooled moisture. This will underscore the potential for
heavy downpours and localized flooding. According to the 12z LREF
cluster analysis, the weak TUTT should lift off to the northeast and
not influence instability much locally, thus diminishing the threat
of pulse-severe storms.

Southwesterly flow will strengthen Wednesday and remain elevated
through Friday with the remnant and decaying frontal boundary in
the vicinity (likely hanging to the north). Again, this is shaping
up to be a rinse-and-repeat pattern with multiple rounds of storms
along the Atlantic coast region (I-95 corridor) next week. Enhanced
moisture and the stalled frontal zone should lead to cloudier
mornings with low stratus development. Despite the cloud cover,
highs are expected to be near normal reading in the low 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 120 AM EDT Sat Jun 28 2025

Patchy fog may be possible in the pre-dawn hours for VQQ and GNV.
Otherwise, VFR conditions with light and variable winds prevail
overnight. Light southwesterly winds this morning shift to
south-southeasterly this afternoon for all terminals except GNV
as the Atlantic sea breeze shifts inland. Another round of showers
and storms will be near the TAF sites between 17-24Z. Convection
begins at GNV first under prevailing SW flow. Have PROB30 groups
to account for the potential thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 141 AM EDT Sat Jun 28 2025

Atlantic high pressure ridge axis will remain across the Florida
peninsula through early next week as surface troughing gradually
sharpens over the southeastern states, creating a prevailing
offshore wind flow. Afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms
will likely push eastward across our local waters each day, with
daily strong storm potential. Daily afternoon into evening south-
southeasterly wind surges expected along the nearshore waters as the
Atlantic sea breeze shifts inland.

Rip Currents: Generally offshore flow prevails but the shift to onshore
winds behind the sea breeze will create a low-moderate risk for area
beaches this weekend.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 141 AM EDT Sat Jun 28 2025

Sea breezes will move inland from the Gulf and Atlantic but the Gulf
sea breeze will be dominant as it will be aided by southwesterly
general winds through the weekend.

Shower development may occur as early as 10 AM near the I-75
corridor with thunderstorm chances increasing after 12 PM. Chaotic
outflows will be possible in the vicinity of any thunderstorms,
however, the corridor for the potentially strong storms will be
along I-95.

Outside of thunderstorms and before the Atlantic sea breeze
develops, winds will favor a west-southwesterly direction at or
below 10 mph. The Atlantic sea breeze will push inland and stall
near the I-95 corridor around 4 PM. Humidity will trend higher with
daily high temps in the low 90s through the weekend.

Given critically dry fuel conditions, there will be a higher
potential for lightning ignitions through the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  92  72  92  71 /  40  40  60  40
SSI  89  76  90  75 /  40  40  50  40
JAX  93  74  92  73 /  60  30  70  40
SGJ  91  74  90  73 /  50  30  70  50
GNV  92  72  93  70 /  50  30  70  50
OCF  92  73  92  73 /  60  20  70  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$