Gainesville, Florida 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

919
FXUS62 KJAX 282346
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
746 PM EDT Sun Jun 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Hot & Humid Conditions through Monday. Heat Advisory this Afternoon
for Glynn County. Heat Advisories Area-wide Possible Monday

- Scattered to Numerous Afternoon & Evening TStorms on Monday

- Low Potential for Slow Tropical Development off the Southeast
  U.S. Coast Later This Week

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Main Highlights Today and Tonight:

- Isolated strong storm potential north-central FL this evening

- Hot and humid Today with heat indices 100-108 F, Heat Advisory for
Glynn County this afternoon

Afternoon surface analysis depicts Atlantic high pressure centered
east of Bermuda, with this feature extending its axis westward
across the FL peninsula and into the eastern Gulf. Meanwhile, a
frontal boundary stretches across the Ohio Valley and the Mid-
Atlantic states. Aloft...ridging over the lower Mississippi Valley
was extending its axis across our area and southeastward across the
Bahamas. Latest GOES-East derived Total Precipitable Water imagery
depicts a slightly drier air mass advecting into inland portions of
southeast GA, where PWATS were falling to around 1.75 inches, which
is just below climatology for late June. Deeper moisture remains in
place across the rest of our area, where PWATs were generally around
2 inches. Strengthening subsidence and the slightly drier air mass
was suppressing the cumulus field across much of southeast GA and
northern portions of the Suwannee Valley, with convection so far
relegated to the developing Gulf coast sea breeze along the FL Big
Bend / Nature Coasts. Temperatures at 18Z were generally in the 90-
95 degree range at inland locations, while values along the
immediate coast in northeast FL have cooled to the upper 80s as an
onshore breeze has developed in the wake of the Atlantic sea breeze.
Dewpoints at inland locations have generally fallen to the lower
70s, while values have risen to the upper 70s for coastal northeast
FL. Heat indices at 18Z were mostly in the 100-105 range across our
area.

Ridging aloft will consolidate over the lower Mississippi Valley buy
this evening, with this feature steering a shortwave trough eastward
across the Ohio Valley and the southern Appalachians tonight, with
this feature then pivoting southeastward as it progresses offshore
on Monday. A slightly drier and more subsident air mass currently in
place over southeast GA and northern portions of the Suwannee Valley
will suppress convection this afternoon and evening, and high
temperatures will soar to the mid and upper 90s beneath a rather
flat cumulus field. Deeper moisture in place over the rest of
northeast and north central FL should allow for isolated to widely
scattered convection to develop later this afternoon as the Gulf and
Atlantic sea breeze boundaries progress inland and interact with
other mesoscale boundaries such as the St. Johns River breeze, with
slow moving activity tending to cluster around the U.S. Highways 17
and 301 corridors. Convection will likely not materialized until
later this afternoon, allowing highs to climb to the mid and upper
90s. Heat indices will peak just below Heat Advisory criteria for
most locations, with values generally in the 103-107 degree range,
while Heat Advisory conditions still may materialize in Glynn
County, where values may peak out around 108.

Convection may linger into the early evening hours across portions
of north central and inland northeast FL, with fair skies otherwise
prevailing until the predawn hours. The aforementioned shortwave
moving across the southern Appalachians overnight will likely push a
Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) offshore of the Outer Banks
towards sunrise, with a line of convection possibly trailing on the
southern end of this MCS near the Savannah River Valley. We have
placed isolated POPs across the Altamaha River basin during the
predawn hours on Monday in the event that activity extends further
southwestward than a majority of the overnight guidance indicates.
This MCS will develop along a southward moving "backdoor" cold
front, and low level westerly flow should keep lows in the mid to
upper 70s at most locations tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- Numerous Storms on Monday with Scattered Strong Storms Possible

- Heat Advisory Conditions Possible for Portions of Our Area Monday
Afternoon, with Heat Index Values Peaking in the 105-110 Range

The main weather highlights early this week continue to be the
dangerous afternoon heat along with afternoon convection, especially
Monday.

On Monday, a large, amplified upper ridging centered to the
northwest will keep the door open for a "ridge riding" impulse to
drop south into northeast FL. Added forcing from the short wave
impulse and corresponding surface trough will combine with
convergence along the Atlantic and Gulf sea breezes. There`s some
uncertainty when t`storms will initiate. At the earliest showers may
develop by 10 AM with t`storms possibly beginning around noon.
Scattered to numerous storms are expected during the afternoon as
outflow interactions persist along the surface trough with highest
coverage expected to be focused across NE FL. The main concerns will
be gusty winds as initial period of convection will develop in an
environment with steep low level lapse rates. It`s possible that
amid the outflow mergers that a few storms become very strong and
possibly severe during the afternoon hours. A second rough of storms
may develop during the evening hours as remnant MCS outflow from the
north pushes into SE GA, with lingering shower activity fading
around midnight.

By Tuesday, steering flow will strengthen as it turns northeasterly,
sending more seasonable deep moisture into the area. The faster flow
will favor a stronger Atlantic sea breeze and keep the Gulf breeze
pinned, resulting in the primary corridor of t`storms to occur along
or west of I-75 corridor in NE FL.

Maximum heat indices Monday will approach Heat Advisory conditions,
at 105-110 degrees over portions of northeast FL, timing of
thunderstorms will heavily impact whether or not locations meet that
criteria.  Cooling onshore flow and cloud cover will limit heating
Tuesday, keeping peak heat indices will be below heat advisory
levels, generally in the lower in the 100-105 degree range.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- Typical Heat becomes Seasonably Hot Again by Independence Day

- Lower than Normal Rain Chances Late Next Week

From Wednesday to Friday, weak surface troughing will slide south
gradually while ridging aloft builds eastward toward the Mid
Atlantic coast, setting up a deep layer easterly flow. The weak
trough will extend from FL well into the Atlantic where it may
consolidate into a semi-tropical low late in the week but overall
confidence is low. Currently, the National Hurricane has maintained
a 20% chance of tropical development with the feature. The upper
wave over the trough will move toward the area in the easterlies
during the Thursday to Friday window, potentially increasing
chances for rain and strong thunderstorms. Increasing moisture will
support increasing afternoon thunderstorm coverage over the holiday
weekend.

Rainfall prospects fall below climo during the second half of the
week as drier air in the mid level pushes over the area. That said,
there will be daily chances for scattered showers and isolated
storms over NE FL. Prevailing easterly flow on Wednesday and
Thursday should keep temperatures close to seasonal averages, but
above average temperatures appear likely towards Friday and the July
4th weekend as easterly flow weakens due to the break down of the
upper ridge.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Lingering evening convection will disperse by around 01z-03z with
VFR conditions returning for the majority of the forecast period.
Potential for early morning patchy fog at VQQ clearing before
midmorning. Winds will build from out of the northwest on Monday
with showers and storms developing after 18z-20z.

&&

.MARINE...


Atlantic high pressure centered near Bermuda will continue to extend
its axis across the Florida peninsula today, maintaining a
prevailing westerly wind flow through the early afternoon hours.
Winds will shift to southeasterly this afternoon as the Atlantic sea
breeze moves onshore. Southerly winds then increase to Caution
levels early this evening across the Georgia waters, followed by
winds shifting to southwesterly with gradually diminishing speeds
after midnight tonight. A frontal boundary will then approach the
Georgia waters from the north on Monday afternoon and evening, with
this boundary then stalling over the northeast waters on Tuesday
before stalling on Wednesday. Showers and thunderstorms will
increase in coverage on Monday and Monday night throughout our local
waters, with activity then shifting from the waters adjacent to St.
Augustine southward on Tuesday. High pressure wedging down the
southeastern seaboard in the wake of this stalling frontal boundary
will result in breezy northeasterly winds throughout our local
waters on Tuesday and Wednesday, followed by onshore winds gradually
diminishing later this week.

Rip Currents:

Breezy onshore winds developing following the passage of the sea
breeze later this afternoon will combine with a persistent
southeasterly ocean swell to create a lower-end moderate rip current
risk at all area beaches. Low surf heights on Monday should drop the
risk to low at the southeast GA beaches, with a lower end risk
continuing at the northeast FL beaches. Persistent and breezy
northeasterly winds on Tuesday and Wednesday should yield a solid
moderate risk at all area beaches, with this moderate risk likely
continuing through Thursday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
- Areas Of High Daytime Dispersion Monday And Tuesday

Lower storm coverage this afternoon, mainly south of I-10. Sea
breeze from the Gulf and Atlantic will move inland through the
afternoon hours and be the focus for thunderstorm activity. Westerly
breezes will elevate dispersions across SE GA this afternoon, while
lighter flow caps dispersion at fair levels for NE FL. A wind shift
to the northwest will accompany a weak trough on Monday. The trough
will interact with the sea breezes leading to numerous showers and
afternoon Thunderstorms Monday, with strong storms possible.
Increasing northeasterly to easterly winds, around 10-15 mph, push
in Tuesday, shifting the higher storm and rain chances toward the I-
75 corridor and Big Bend region. Increasing northwesterly transport
may result in areas of high dispersion across portions of Monday.


FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Significant fog is not expected
during the next several days. Stronger storms will be capable of
producing strong and erratic wind gusts, along with frequent
lightning strikes and heavy downpours, especially on Monday
afternoon and evening.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Minor flooding continues along lower portions of the Satilla
River Basin, as water levels are currently cresting in a minor
flood at the gauge near Atkinson, where minor flooding will
continue during the next several days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  76  96  76  95 /  10  30  30  30
SSI  79  95  80  90 /  10  40  40  10
JAX  76  98  77  93 /  10  50  40  30
SGJ  78  97  77  92 /  10  30  30  40
GNV  76  98  76  95 /  20  30  40  70
OCF  76  95  77  93 /  30  30  20  80

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$