Gainesville, Florida 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

654
FXUS62 KJAX 310016
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
816 PM EDT Sun Mar 30 2025

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 816 PM EDT Sun Mar 30 2025

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Convection has begun to taper off this evening with the bulk of
rain shifting into the Atlantic. Have adjusted POPs to account
for this clearing. Low stratus and patchy fog develop tonight,
with potential sea fog developing across the nearshore SE GA
waters. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 60s.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 237 PM EDT Sun Mar 30 2025

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Mostly cloudy to cloudy skies has remained a somewhat limiting
factor so far for strong to severe storm potential with heaviest
showers over the suwannee valley and western portions of SE GA
which is now shifting slowly east of highway 301. New showers and
thunderstorms are developing along I-95 with a line of showers
also having moved north of the Altamaha river and Brunswick area.
The best instability is analyzed along the US-17 and I-95
corridors up to around 800-1,200 J/Kg of surface CAPE and 1,500
J/kg of elevated instability (MUCAPE). The shortwave and seasonably
cool mid level temperatures -12 to -14 C and upper passing
shortwave will help develop some new thunderstorms and a strong
storm is still possible, but the threat for isolated severe storms
appears more diminished compared to earlier thanks to cloudy
skies hanging on longer and a few storms could produce wind gusts
as high as 40 mph. About 0.5 to 1.0 inches of rain has fallen so
far today with locally higher totals of 2.0-3.0 inches over
Gilchrist, Alachua, and western Marion counties. Another 0.5 inch
to 1.0 inch of rain is expected through sunset with locally higher
totals east of highway 301 of 2.0-3.0 inches.

Temperatures should peak generally below 80 degrees for most
areas due to cloudy skies with exceptions around 80 over north
central FL. Southeast winds will be generally 10-15 mph near the
coast and 5-10 mph inland outside of convection.

Tonight, thunderstorms will exit off the coast by sunset with
some showers lingering into early evening hours, then should
trend dry after midnight. Patchy to areas of fog will develop
over SE GA and the Georgia waters late tonight and shift into
inland NE FL west of the St Johns river towards sunrise. Lows will
be mild in the low to mid 60s with light southerly winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 237 PM EDT Sun Mar 30 2025

SPC has an Enhanced Risk (level 3 of 5) of severe weather in the
Day 2 Outlook along and north of a line from the northern
Suwannee Valley in north FL to western Glynn County GA where the
best shear will reside with 925mb jet at a moderate 35-40 knots
across interior SE GA (mainly north of Waycross). Some of the
stronger to severe storms may have wind gusts of 40-70 mph,
potential for hail and perhaps a tornado (limited shear). With the
above stated, there are a few limiting factors for strong to
severe convection: narrow CAPE profiles due to precursor stratus
(and how fast that will erode), meager shear parameters, and poor
mid-level lapse rates.

A cold front will move southeast into SE GA late in the day, with
a prefrontal trough ahead of it. Convection is expected to
initiate on the prefrontal trough in the late morning hours across
SE GA Monday. This activity will then spread southeast through
the afternoon. Models depict the activity weakening as it presses
south of the FL/GA border, as best upper support located to the
north. Therefore, the best chance for strong to potentially severe
storms will be over SE GA Monday afternoon and evening, with less
chance by the time the convection reaches north central FL. With
some morning sunshine and warm advection on a flow from the
southwest, temperatures will rise into the 80s ahead of the front.

The front will slowly move south of the area late Monday night
into Tuesday morning. Lows Monday night will range from the upper
50s to lower 60s across SE GA to the lower to mid 60s NE FL.

While the convection will dissipate with loss of diurnal heating
Monday evening, isolated to scattered activity will linger along the
convergence zone of the cold frontal boundary Monday night into
Tuesday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 237 PM EDT Sun Mar 30 2025

High pressure will build to the east northeast Wednesday. Warm
advection will help push temperatures well above normal Wednesday,
with highs ranging from the lower to mid 80s east, to the upper 80s
to lower 90s well inland.

Dry weather is expected for Wednesday night through Saturday as
ridging at the surface and aloft prevails. Temperatures will
continue to trend above normal. Inland highs around 90s will be
common Thursday through Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 816 PM EDT Sun Mar 30 2025

Convection has begun to taper off this evening with a few showers
lingering near the coastal TAF sites. Ceilings quickly drop into
MVFR/IFR this evening into tonight as low stratus moves in across
the area. Ceilings will then likely drop to LIFR between 09Z-13Z.
Patchy fog will lower VSBYs to MVFR with IFR VSBYs possible at
GNV towards sunrise. Fog and stratus should lift and dissipate by
13-14Z. But, MVFR conditions may persist at SSI due to nearby sea
fog. Southwest winds increase to 10 knots Monday afternoon as a
strong to severe line of storms approaches from the northwest with
VFR skies before the storms arrive.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 237 PM EDT Sun Mar 30 2025

Showers and Thunderstorms will continue through this evening,
then resume late Monday as a line of strong to severe
thunderstorms arrives ahead of a cold front. A wave of showers and
storms will move across the waters Tuesday as the previous cold
front lifts back north of the waters on Wednesday as a warm front.
Stronger southeast winds develop through the end of the week as
Atlantic high pressure dominates near Bermuda with drier weather.

Rip Currents: High risk of rip currents in effect through this
evening over Northeast Florida beaches with a high end moderate
risk at Southeast Georgia beaches. A high end moderate risk is
expected at all area beaches on Monday as winds become more
parallel from the south and then turn southwesterly with a more
offshore component in the afternoon hours.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 237 PM EDT Sun Mar 30 2025

A wet and stormy day is forecast for the rest of this afternoon
and early evening, as a warm and moist environment combines with
an upper disturbance to provide for instability across area. A few
strong storms will be possible. This activity will decrease in
coverage Tonight. A cold front will cross the area Monday
afternoon through Monday night bringing a round of strong to
isolated severe storms. The front will linger into Tuesday
morning, then lift back across area as a warm front. Ridging at
the surface and aloft will provide for a period of dry and
unseasonably warm weather for Wednesday through the Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  63  80  60  83 /  20  80  30  20
SSI  63  80  63  78 /  60  60  40  10
JAX  63  84  64  85 /  40  40  30  20
SGJ  64  84  65  83 /  40  20  10  20
GNV  63  84  65  87 /  20  20  20  20
OCF  64  86  66  87 /  30  10  10  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 6 AM EDT Monday for FLZ124-125-138-
     233-333.

GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$